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Select Stakes Races 8/31/24

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Senator Blutarsky@senator-blutarsky
526 Posts
#1 · August 28, 2024, 10:38 PM

Hey gang, we have not one, two or three, but several 500k, to multi-million dollar purse races at a few tracks, even some of the 100, 200, 300k races look not too shabby:

Kentucky Downs, I 'm guessing based on the weather the track will be FIRM in Franklin, KY, but stay tuned as all the races are on GRASS, the grass track is a funny shaped configuration, 3 turns all around the 1 3/16 mile track.  Kentucky Downs races are in Central Time (CT):

https://www.equibase.com/static/entry/RaceCardIndexKD083124USA-EQB.html

Saratoga, I'm also guessing as rain is predicted hardest late in the day, it might start out FAST and FIRM but will it stay it????  This starts the 3 day countdown until the season close of Saratoga on Labor Day:

https://www.equibase.com/static/entry/RaceCardIndexSAR083124USA-EQB.html

Del Mar, Fast and Firm, yupper, only an unscheduled biblical plague will change that.  Of course located in Del Mar, CA these races are all in Pacific Standard Time (PST).

https://www.equibase.com/static/entry/RaceCardIndexDMR083124USA-EQB.html

Check with your ADW for free PPs, or online.  There are some resources online for free pps for most and or all these races, but I'm not sure if that is considered pirated material.  Whatever, free pp's wherever never bothered me, lol, fixed races ok, some free pps baaaaddd lmao now.

I'll hand pick the races I feel at comfort with, and will disqualify races to handicap and bet that I just can't with a high probability predict the weather / track condition.  Picks and suggested bets will be posted Friday night / Saturday morning.  Hope to see y'all join in.  GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!!!

 

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Senator Blutarsky@senator-blutarsky
526 Posts
Topic Author
#2 · August 31, 2024, 12:11 AM

I've cancelled handicapping Saratoga and Kentucky Downs as the weather predictions are high 80-90% chance of rain and from 2/5" - 1/2" rain fall also predicted which is impactful.  I've done this before, cancelling and then it doesn't rain or the reverse take a shot with fast and firm and get screwed.  I have no predictions so no regrets and don't have to pull an all nigher tonight. 🙂

Del Mar 083124

Race 5 - 2, 3, 6, 7 - The 2 is 8-1 ml and the 3 is 20-1 ml and I think they have as good a shot as the 6,7. Will be seeking value bets besides boxes (tris, sups) with the longs on top and to win.

Race 10 - 2, 3, 7 - The 7 is a prohibitive favorite and gets the weight allowance because she is running against the boys.  I really like the 2 at 15-1 ml odds and will be also seeking value with that 2 on top and 2nd place with the other 2 amongst the box and wheel.  I really like these top selections in this order 723, 273, so for the exacta only 27 72.  The 2 is my long shot at Del Mar of the day to compliment the 7.

Race 11 - 5 then 6 / 1 3 4 8 9 10 (possibly all).  The 5 is 12-1 ml odds, the 6 is 20-1 ml odds.  Do not underestimate this 5 who won his last 4 in a row he's fresh and working out like a champ. The 6 is a value play because he can run just as fast as these without lasix in stakes company but has a low win %, low jockey win %, but they have won a stakes race together.

Between Mohawk and Del Mar that's 15 races for tomorrow.  I'll bet a total of $300 on the 15 ($20 avg per race), and an extra $90 each on both of the Best Bet included races in the 15 races for a total of $480 tomorrow.  Based on previous bets this week that have not panned out I'm already in the hole $350 with the $480 tomorrow that is a total of $830 to be wagered between Tuesday 8/27 to 8/31. 

Sunday and Monday (Labor Day) will definitely see some bets so I'll soar just over a $1000 for the week.  Things better pick & pan out lol! 

My betting weeks go from Tuesday - Monday, because I get VIP rewards deposits on Tuesdays.

GL EV1

 

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Lonnie@lonnie
2,817 Posts
#3 · August 31, 2024, 7:33 AM

Good luck!

Hey!  Save $5.00 for socks!

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Senator Blutarsky@senator-blutarsky
526 Posts
Topic Author
#4 · August 31, 2024, 2:00 PM
 Del Mar         231.80
  Race 5 1.00 EX BX+2+3+6+7 12.00
  Race 5 1.00 EX BX+2+3 2.00
  Race 5 2.00 WIN 2+3 4.00
  Race 5 0.20 SPR BX+2+3+6+7 4.80
  Race 5 0.50 TRI BX+2+3+6+7 12.00
  Race 5 0.50 TRI 2+3 / 2+3 / 6+7 2.00
  Race 5 0.50 TRI 2+3 / 6+7 / 2+3 2.00
  Race 5 1.00 SPR 2+3 / 2+3 / 6+7 / 6+7 4.00
  Race 5 1.00 SPR 2+3 / 6+7 / 2+3 / 6+7 4.00
  Race 10 2.00 WP 2 4.00
  Race 10 1.00 EX BX+2+3+7 6.00
  Race 10 4.00 EX BX+2+7 8.00
  Race 10 4.00 EX 7 / 2 4.00
  Race 10 0.50 TRI BX+2+3+7 3.00
  Race 10 1.00 TRI 2+7 / 2+7 / 3 2.00
  Race 10 1.00 TRI 2+7 / 3 / 2+7 2.00
  Race 10 0.50 TRI 2+7 / 2+7 / 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9 7.00
  Race 10 0.50 TRI 7 / 2 / 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9 3.50
  Race 10 0.10 SPR 2+3+7 / 2+3+7 / 2+3+7 / 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9 3.60
  Race 10 0.20 SPR 2+7 / 2+7 / 3 / 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9 2.40
  Race 10 0.20 SPR 2+7 / 2+7 / 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9 / 3 2.40
  Race 10 0.20 SPR 7 / 2 / 3 / 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9 1.20
  Race 10 0.20 SPR 7 / 2 / 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9 / 3 1.20
  Race 10 0.10 SPR 2+7 / 2+7 / 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9 / 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9 8.40
  Race 10 0.10 SPR 7 / 2 / 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9 / 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9 4.20
  Race 10 1.00 TRI 7 / 2 / 3 1.00
  Race 10 0.50 TRI 7 / 2 / 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9 3.50
  Race 10 2.00 DBL 2+3+7 / 5+6 12.00
  Race 10 2.00 DBL 2+7 / 5+6 8.00
  Race 10 2.00 DBL 7 / 5+6 4.00
  Race 11 4.00 WIN 5+6 8.00
  Race 11 4.00 WIN 5 4.00
  Race 11 2.00 EX BX+5+6 4.00
  Race 11 2.00 EX 5 / 6 2.00
  Race 11 1.00 EX 5+6 / 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9+10 18.00
  Race 11 0.50 TRI 5+6 / 5+6 / 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9+10 8.00
  Race 11 0.50 TRI 5+6 / 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9+10 / 5+6 8.00
  Race 11 0.50 TRI 5 / 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9+10 / 6 4.00
  Race 11 0.50 TRI 5 / 6 / 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9+10 4.00
  Race 11 0.10 SPR 5+6 / 5+6 / 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9+10 / 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9+10 11.20
  Race 11 0.10 SPR 5 / 6 / 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9+10 / 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9+10 5.60
  Race 11 0.10 SPR 5+6 / 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9+10 / 5+6 / 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9+10 11.20
  Race 11 0.10 SPR 5 / 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9+10 / 6 / 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9+10 5.60
           
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Senator Blutarsky@senator-blutarsky
526 Posts
Topic Author
#5 · August 31, 2024, 2:04 PM
Quote from Lonnie on August 31, 2024, 7:33 AM

Good luck!

Hey!  Save $5.00 for socks!

I don't wear socks, or underwear lol.

SOFL we're casual, flip flops, slippers, sandals 🙂

Went over the total budget, as unusual, today's was $480 ending up going $700 w / Mohawk which will get posted in its respective forum.

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Senator Blutarsky@senator-blutarsky
526 Posts
Topic Author
#6 · August 31, 2024, 2:48 PM

For me there were 2 major late scratches at Del Mar.  The 3 in the 5th, one of my top selections & the 7 in the 10th.  All bets for those 2 races were cancelled and revised, please see below:

 Del Mar          
  Race 5 2.00 WIN 2 2.00
  Race 5 1.00 EX BX+2+6+7 6.00
  Race 5 2.00 EX 2 / 6+7 4.00
  Race 5 2.00 EX 2 / 6+7 4.00
  Race 5 1.00 TRI BX+2+6+7 6.00
  Race 5 1.00 TRI 2 / 6+7 / 6+7 2.00
  Race 5 1.00 TRI 6+7 / 2 / 6+7 2.00
  Race 5 0.20 SPR 2+6+7 / 2+6+7 / 2+6+7 / 1+2+5+6+7+8 3.60
  Race 5 0.50 SPR 2 / 6+7 / 6+7 / 1+2+5+6+7+8 3.00
  Race 5 0.50 SPR 2 / 6+7 / 1+2+5+6+7+8 / 6+7 3.00
  Race 5 0.50 SPR 6+7 / 2 / 6+7 / 1+2+5+6+7+8 3.00
  Race 5 0.50 TRI 2 / 6+7 / 1+2+5+6+7+8 4.00
  Race 5 0.50 TRI 6+7 / 2 / 1+2+5+6+7+8 4.00
  Race 10 2.00 EX BX+2+3 4.00
  Race 10 2.00 EX 2 / 3 2.00
  Race 10 0.50 TRI 2 / 3 / 1+2+3+4+5+6+8+9 3.00
  Race 10 0.50 TRI 2 / 1+2+3+4+5+6+8+9 / 3 3.00
  Race 10 0.20 SPR 2+3 / 2+3 / 1+2+3+4+5+6+8+9 / 1+2+3+4+5+6+8+9 12.00
  Race 10 0.20 SPR 2 / 3 / 1+2+3+4+5+6+8+9 / 1+2+3+4+5+6+8+9 6.00
  Race 10 0.20 SPR 2 / 1+2+3+4+5+6+8+9 / 3 / 1+2+3+4+5+6+8+9 6.00
  Race 10 0.10 SPR 2 / 1+2+3+4+5+6+8+9 / 1+2+3+4+5+6+8+9 / 3 3.00
  Race 10 0.10 SPR 2 / 1+2+4+5+6+8+9 / 1+2+4+5+6+8+9 / 1+2+4+5+6+8+9 12.00
  Race 10 0.50 TRI 2 / 1+2+4+5+6+8+9 / 1+2+4+5+6+8+9 15.00
  Race 10 2.00 WP 2 4.00
  Race 10 0.50 TRI 2+3 / 2+3 / 1+2+3+4+5+6+8+9 6.00
  Race 10 2.00 DBL 2+3 / 5+6 8.00
  Race 10 2.00 DBL 2 / 5+6 4.00
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Lonnie@lonnie
2,817 Posts
#7 · August 31, 2024, 2:53 PM

Good luck Mr. Senator.

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Senator Blutarsky@senator-blutarsky
526 Posts
Topic Author
#8 · August 31, 2024, 3:10 PM
Quote from Lonnie on August 31, 2024, 2:53 PM

Good luck Mr. Senator.

Good Luck to You Lonnie, ALL the Members here, G-D bless America, (especially talkinghorseracing.com), we need fun, health, and success in all our endeavors - 4 months left to get to this year's goals!

 

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What have others said about Blutarsky... (("Get away from me, and stay away from me!!" - Ex Girlfriend)) - (("Creeeeeepy" - Neighbor)) - (("Ughhhh...Jerk off, retard, loser." - Mother)) - (("Cheater, clown, a brown stain on this High School!" - Former Teacher)) - (("There are worst consequences to sex than STDs, abortion > BLUTO!"- Dad)) - (("He liked us probing him way too much, therefore we will not be abducting, he's all yours." - An Extraterrestrial))
Lonnie@lonnie
2,817 Posts
#9 · August 31, 2024, 4:10 PM
Quote from Senator Blutarsky on August 31, 2024, 3:10 PM
Quote from Lonnie on August 31, 2024, 2:53 PM

Good luck Mr. Senator.

Good Luck to You Lonnie, ALL the Members here, G-D bless America, (especially talkinghorseracing.com), we need fun, health, and success in all our endeavors - 4 months left to get to this year's goals!

 

Amen and G-d Bless!

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Senator Blutarsky@senator-blutarsky
526 Posts
Topic Author
#10 · August 31, 2024, 5:54 PM

Cancelling Saratoga was a good call. 

Fast / Firm went out the window to start the stakes races there I would of been looking at earlier.

Torrential rains, now the track condition is Good / Good.

I'm not opposed to handicapping any race given enough lead time, but I am going to DQ a race(s) where any of the entries have no past performance at all on a surface.

MDSW are the exception at times, pedigree and other stuff plays too.

 

 

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What have others said about Blutarsky... (("Get away from me, and stay away from me!!" - Ex Girlfriend)) - (("Creeeeeepy" - Neighbor)) - (("Ughhhh...Jerk off, retard, loser." - Mother)) - (("Cheater, clown, a brown stain on this High School!" - Former Teacher)) - (("There are worst consequences to sex than STDs, abortion > BLUTO!"- Dad)) - (("He liked us probing him way too much, therefore we will not be abducting, he's all yours." - An Extraterrestrial))
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