Quote from Lonnie on August 28, 2024, 7:18 PM

I look forward to your analysis.

Quote from Senator Blutarsky on August 28, 2024, 7:51 PM

Walner did pretty good.

Captain Treacherous too.

I'm a gambler what do I know lol!

Quote from Bgtolex25 on August 28, 2024, 10:14 PM

Quote from Bgtolex25 on August 28, 2024, 11:52 AM

For the last few weeks I have been geeking out on the 2024 Yearling Sales catalogs in anticipation of making informed share purchases with TheStable.

Similar to my forum colleagues who keep notes and past performance charts for future betting purposes, I have my own system for evaluating pedigrees.  I wish that I had years of data, but this is a brand new venture and hope to use and refine over the next coming decades.  Lord willing and the creek don’t rise as they say in the hollers of Appalachia.

Anyway, much more to come.  Early data from the Blooded Mixed Sale in Ohio indicates that I must be somewhat consistent with my thinking with the buying public.

Off for a day of kayaking.  I will share some additional details soon including my pedigree notes on the Stable’s purchase two days ago. If this is a topic that interests others, please jump in as much as you want.

So I studied pedigrees back in the day and was fully into the harness racing breeding and raising the future wannabe stars until I vanished for 30 years or so.  Since Covid, my interest perked up and studied the catalogues and sire production from the bleachers.  TheStable has given me an opportunity to get back into the game from afar, but I hope to be living in the Lexington, KY area this time next year.

So I am no expert and maybe a little out of touch, but what the hell.

Some of my thoughts in no particular order:

1.  I am focused only on trotters.  I know pacers better but you have to have rocket fuel for horse feed or big bucks to buy high end caliber stakes pedigrees.  There is still room with modestly bred trotters to make it if you have a skilled team developing their gait and mental toughness.
2. Filly trotters who have some early racing success hold their value as broodmares.
3. Don’t fall in love with a big name somewhere in the pedigree.  Look for % of winners, especially in 1st dam and by sisters of the 1st dam.
4. I prefer 1st-4th foals.  Foals 5-8 ok.It is my observation that the best horses are foaled from a younger mare.  There are exceptions, but exceptions don’t make the rule.  Seen plenty of underwhelming foals from older mares.  Same thing would happen with  humans if we were forced to reproduce via aggressive scientific means.
5. If you are looking at fillies, pay attention to the racing performance of the 1st and 2nd dams and all of their female offspring.  Their mental game is more strongly affected by the females in the pedigree.
6. What about the sires?  I only want foals by sires who raced against and beat a high% those of its generation.  And I want to see at least some success as a 2 year old followed by greater at 3.  If they do it again as an aged horse, then great.  It is the best indicator of soundness, confirmation, and ability.  Winning and earning start after start, year after year.  Those that don’t show it on paper will have to prove it with a couple of successful crops.  The greatest traits the sire will pass along are confirmation and other physical attributes like lung capacity, a great airway passage and heart (not figurative, but great cardiovascular output)
7. What you can’t see on paper, then you have to gather by your own wits thru careful inspection and sometimes some inside information from people who have experience with the yearling back to birth.  Athleticism in horses is hereditary, not developed. Show me a great racehorse and I bet Lonnie’s last dollar that it stood within 2 hours of birth, nursed from it’s mama without support, roughhoused with it’s pasture buddies and always wanted to race or chase at full speed.  On top of that the future champ had an inquisitive mind and was trainable if the people treated it properly.  You have to talk to the people who raised the horse and know how to get an honest assessment.  
8. to be continued tomorrow with a dive into my specific ranking formula that will guarantee you a winner…for only $19.95.  Ok, it will be free, because I am in the R&D phase and 99% of you stopped reading by the 3rd point.😏. A good night to you all.

Quote from Grit on August 29, 2024, 12:30 PM

I to was dreaming about a barn full of trotters.  I think everyone shares that dream, making it extremely competitive.  So different then years ago when there were only a couple of trot races a week at some tracks.  Looking at sires, most foals from the top sires get to the races at a 70% clip.  Noticed Tactical Landings are at 55 and 57% the past two years.  I'll stick to the percentages!

Quote from Bgtolex25 on August 29, 2024, 1:20 PM

Right.  I really know the pacers better but feel it is next to impossible unless you are ok staying at the fair level or have a huge bankroll, and this isn’t TheStable’s position.  I get and respect that choice.

AMac has an affinity for the diagonals, so you dance the dance where your partner is happy.

As for my point #7 previously, I am counting on AMac and AmyMac to be able to pick out the athletes, although I am trying to reconnect with a few breeders willing to share over the phone.  (I am 2500 miles away and the videos only show so much) I had an insight that the top seller at this week’s Blooded Sale in Ohio  exceeded her paper pedigree from the day she hit the ground.  If she had been bought by The Stable, then I would have jumped at a few shares because she was only $20K.(in my notes for future reference)

As for 108 Judy’s Moni, I had her #14 of 24 trotting fillies in the sale.  Based on the purchase price, it seems in the ballpark and Amy thought she had that athletic look and presence.  I passed because there are so many more to come and hate to jump at the first one offered, but I put it in my spreadsheet to monitor for future reference.

Quote from Bgtolex25 on August 29, 2024, 7:59 PM

My pedigree evaluation process currently has 7 variables.  Observations, input from my friends (I’m counting on your input), and future results will no doubt lead to some tweaking.  But for this season, I will stay with these seven.

1.  Sire Stength
2. Maternal family strength
3. # of foals from dam
4. Female racing success in maternal line
5. % of winners from 1st dam
6. % of winners from 2nd dam
7. Depth of stakes winners throughout maternal line

Today’s discussion: Sire Strength 
As you can see, I don’t care as much about the sire.  Why?  The quality of commercial sires represented at the public sales are fairly even across the board.  The better sales only let in the proven sires or young sires with exceptional pedigrees and race performance.  So why sweat this variable.  Show me a top producing sire and you will only see that they were mated to strong mares.  I do want to see a sire that had multiple years of racing against and beating the best of his generation.  2 & 3 year old success is critical.  This success at the highest level early in their career typically = great confirmation, lung and heart capacity.

I’m not going to get excited for the next big thing in the sire ranks.  This year in Ohio there are a couple of 1st year trotting sires who are generating a buzz.  Ready For Money and In Range.  This may lead to some over pricing for those yearlings, leading to more value for the proven sires, such as What The Hill, Long Tom, and Uncle Peter.  

Look for value with those solid sires mated with exceptional mares.  Conversely, stay away from the hot sires with mediocre mares or unexceptional looking yearling.

Your insights and comments are welcomed.  
Tomorrow we will take look at the overall strength of the maternal family, #2

✌️

Quote from Lonnie on August 29, 2024, 8:34 PM

Quote from Bgtolex25 on August 29, 2024, 7:59 PM

My pedigree evaluation process currently has 7 variables.  Observations, input from my friends (I’m counting on your input), and future results will no doubt lead to some tweaking.  But for this season, I will stay with these seven.

1.  Sire Stength
2. Maternal family strength
3. # of foals from dam
4. Female racing success in maternal line
5. % of winners from 1st dam
6. % of winners from 2nd dam
7. Depth of stakes winners throughout maternal line

Today’s discussion: Sire Strength 
As you can see, I don’t care as much about the sire.  Why?  The quality of commercial sires represented at the public sales are fairly even across the board.  The better sales only let in the proven sires or young sires with exceptional pedigrees and race performance.  So why sweat this variable.  Show me a top producing sire and you will only see that they were mated to strong mares.  I do want to see a sire that had multiple years of racing against and beating the best of his generation.  2 & 3 year old success is critical.  This success at the highest level early in their career typically = great confirmation, lung and heart capacity.

I’m not going to get excited for the next big thing in the sire ranks.  This year in Ohio there are a couple of 1st year trotting sires who are generating a buzz.  Ready For Money and In Range.  This may lead to some over pricing for those yearlings, leading to more value for the proven sires, such as What The Hill, Long Tom, and Uncle Peter.  

 

Look for value with those solid sires mated with exceptional mares.  Conversely, stay away from the hot sires with mediocre mares or unexceptional looking yearling.

Your insights and comments are welcomed.  
Tomorrow we will take look at the overall strength of the maternal family, #2

✌️

 

Quote from Bgtolex25 on August 29, 2024, 7:59 PM

My pedigree evaluation process currently has 7 variables.  Observations, input from my friends (I’m counting on your input), and future results will no doubt lead to some tweaking.  But for this season, I will stay with these seven.

1.  Sire Stength
2. Maternal family strength
3. # of foals from dam
4. Female racing success in maternal line
5. % of winners from 1st dam
6. % of winners from 2nd dam
7. Depth of stakes winners throughout maternal line

Today’s discussion: Sire Strength 
As you can see, I don’t care as much about the sire.  Why?  The quality of commercial sires represented at the public sales are fairly even across the board.  The better sales only let in the proven sires or young sires with exceptional pedigrees and race performance.  So why sweat this variable.  Show me a top producing sire and you will only see that they were mated to strong mares.  I do want to see a sire that had multiple years of racing against and beating the best of his generation.  2 & 3 year old success is critical.  This success at the highest level early in their career typically = great confirmation, lung and heart capacity.

I’m not going to get excited for the next big thing in the sire ranks.  This year in Ohio there are a couple of 1st year trotting sires who are generating a buzz.  Ready For Money and In Range.  This may lead to some over pricing for those yearlings, leading to more value for the proven sires, such as What The Hill, Long Tom, and Uncle Peter.  

 

Look for value with those solid sires mated with exceptional mares.  Conversely, stay away from the hot sires with mediocre mares or unexceptional looking yearling.

Your insights and comments are welcomed.  
Tomorrow we will take look at the overall strength of the maternal family, #2

✌️

Thank you for sharing your knowledge and experience with us. I am eagerly awaiting future installments.