Quote from Senator Blutarsky on August 27, 2024, 9:45 PM

Quote from Lonnie on August 6, 2024, 8:49 AM

Between horses racing at different distances, tracks, surfaces, speed ratings, workoutsand weights, and not to mention that they only race every few weeks, I find that handicapping the thoroughbred's to be well near impossible.

How do YOU do it??

I've picked up on some patterns you might like.

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If a horse likes the mile, 1 1/8 tracks, and so on whether dirt or turf don't assume they'll run as good at the same distance on a different track configuration.  Know your track configurations.  If you don't, google the track, find their Wikipedia page, and they always list the track attributes ie size of the dirt, turf ovals etc.

________

Another is...

Seek out only graded and non-stakes races.

You'll notice in most all jurisdictions NOWADAYS Lasix s not allowed in those above mentioned type races.

Hone in on a race that has had horses on and off Lasix and see if you notice a success pattern.

If a horse is stepping up say from MDSW, Allowance that never previously raced without Lasix, now into stakes company, unless they are a world beater type, consider tossing them.

Now narrowing down the field...Find the horses through your own handicapping that raced the best at that distance, weight, track, time off, workouts etc ie common denominator without Lasix.

You're going to find you more easily find winners, and excellent competitive runners.  This Lasix thing, ain't no joke.  Saw horses running great with it, stepping up to stakes can't run a lick, then back down in company racing and winning again with it.  So you can use the on and off Lasix both ways trying to find potential valuable patterns.

Lastly stakes horses are less likely to be "juiced" up, who wants a positive and lose hundreds, potentially millions in stakes, and the future accolade of a graded stakes win when they going up for and creating a stud fee.

Quote from Lonnie on August 27, 2024, 9:52 PM

Quote from Senator Blutarsky on August 27, 2024, 9:45 PM

Quote from Lonnie on August 6, 2024, 8:49 AM

Between horses racing at different distances, tracks, surfaces, speed ratings, workoutsand weights, and not to mention that they only race every few weeks, I find that handicapping the thoroughbred's to be well near impossible.

How do YOU do it??

I've picked up on some patterns you might like.

______

If a horse likes the mile, 1 1/8 tracks, and so on whether dirt or turf don't assume they'll run as good at the same distance on a different track configuration.  Know your track configurations.  If you don't, google the track, find their Wikipedia page, and they always list the track attributes ie size of the dirt, turf ovals etc.

________

Another is...

Seek out only graded and non-stakes races.

You'll notice in most all jurisdictions NOWADAYS Lasix s not allowed in those above mentioned type races.

Hone in on a race that has had horses on and off Lasix and see if you notice a success pattern.

If a horse is stepping up say from MDSW, Allowance that never previously raced without Lasix, now into stakes company, unless they are a world beater type, consider tossing them.

Now narrowing down the field...Find the horses through your own handicapping that raced the best at that distance, weight, track, time off, workouts etc ie common denominator without Lasix.

You're going to find you more easily find winners, and excellent competitive runners.  This Lasix thing, ain't no joke.  Saw horses running great with it, stepping up to stakes can't run a lick, then back down in company racing and winning again with it.  So you can use the on and off Lasix both ways trying to find potential valuable patterns.

Lastly stakes horses are less likely to be "juiced" up, who wants a positive and lose hundreds, potentially millions in stakes, and the future accolade of a graded stakes win when they going up for and creating a stud fee.

Awesome insight!  Thank you for sharing.

Quote from Senator Blutarsky on August 27, 2024, 10:29 PM

Thanks Lonnie :).

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I'm a replay freak.  Both pan and head on.  When in pp notes (usually far right) there are comments like bumped out of the gate.  I go to that race vid, find that horse and watch it (pan and head on) to see how impactful incident was.  A fraction of sec maybe no big whoop if it wasn't a serious body check.  Sometimes they are seriously pin-balled for several seconds, and lost any opportunity for a viable run.

______

If time allows, I will take several hours to study a race, yes one race.  The derby, possibly up to days.  In Dubai the year that Curlin won the World Cup there I studied the races without the pps as they didn't come out until Thursday.  One day per race.  I was watching youtube videos of foreign race and race calls, converting weight allowance - kilos into lbs, yes and using a stop watch too.  was fun.

I put $5k on that 6 race card.  Lost the first 3 races, was sick. Won the next 3, one of them was a horse Jaypeg about 30-1 who was carrying @26lbs less than their last race - went w2w, ended with Curlin running wide the whole race and winning and me hitting a $13 straight p3.  Cashed out at a 700% profit or so.  Fun week, fun finish, not my best gambling win but most exhilarating.

One important thing I did then and still do now (again if time allows) before I pick my selections, I run the race in my head, several scenarios.

_______

Worst day, I lost $6k on Nobiz Like Showbiz all over my bets in the KD.  That's the problem with a horse like Giacomo winning the derby, and seeing $10k exacta payouts, $100k tri payouts, 1mil super payouts....you score on a race like that and you could be set for life, from a wagered race, and not owning a stake in anything.

Quote from Lonnie on August 27, 2024, 11:07 PM

You are truly passionate about your craft!  I wouldn't have nearly the patience to do that.  15 to 20 minutes is tops for me for a race.  After that, I suffer paralysis from analysis.

Quote from Senator Blutarsky on August 27, 2024, 11:12 PM

Quote from Lonnie on August 27, 2024, 11:07 PM

You are truly passionate about your craft!  I wouldn't have nearly the patience to do that.  15 to 20 minutes is tops for me for a race.  After that, I suffer paralysis from analysis.

You're impatient, but a fine poet! 🙂

Quote from Lonnie on August 27, 2024, 11:13 PM

Quote from Senator Blutarsky on August 27, 2024, 11:12 PM

Quote from Lonnie on August 27, 2024, 11:07 PM

You are truly passionate about your craft!  I wouldn't have nearly the patience to do that.  15 to 20 minutes is tops for me for a race.  After that, I suffer paralysis from analysis.

You're impatient, but a fine poet!

You know it!  😉