"Here’s why mutuel prices in harness racing have been more and more chalky"
Quote from Lonnie on November 13, 2026, 11:16 AMThis is an interesting read. I'm not convinced his logic is 100% correct, but interesting nonetheless.
https://harnessracingupdate.com/2026/11/13/heres-why-mutuel-prices-in-harness-racing-have-been-more-and-more-chalky/
This is an interesting read. I'm not convinced his logic is 100% correct, but interesting nonetheless.
Here’s why mutuel prices in harness racing have been more and more chalky
Quote from Purple Aura on November 13, 2026, 11:45 AMNot convinced either. The math might work. What makes the math maybe work is how they race now. 1-5 takes the lead before the half and they race single file until the top of the stretch. Boring racing and boring prices might work for him. Good luck to him. Doesn't work for me.
TURF RACING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Works for me.
Not convinced either. The math might work. What makes the math maybe work is how they race now. 1-5 takes the lead before the half and they race single file until the top of the stretch. Boring racing and boring prices might work for him. Good luck to him. Doesn't work for me.
TURF RACING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Works for me.
Quote from Trevor on November 13, 2026, 11:59 AMThe foundation of his argument is reasonable. The reason you see so much
1-5 takes the lead before the half and they race single file until the top of the stretch.
comes down to two things:
- Fields aren't competitive enough. We see it all the time, all over the place. We've got Woodmere Betcha racing in the optional $15,000 claimer in Dayton, and racing against mares dropping down out of the open. JK Maga won basically the bottom condition at Meadows yesterday, and moving up next week will face him off against an open mainstay like Buckeyebollinger N or a solid stake horse like Mchungry. Because of that those overlays get control and nobody is going to challenge them with a lesser horse.
- There's also the realities of physics and engineering. It's estimated that for every turn you're off the rail, you give up about 1 length to the inside horses for every lane you're out. Couple that with turns that are engineered to carry speed at their maximum, and you're at a huge disadvantage racing in an an outside path unless the front end has been beat up.
Think about that for a second. If you're on a 1/2-mile track, get away 6th, and move first up at the 3/8, you've given up over 9 lengths to the lead horse (1Q length per position + 3 lengths in the turns).
I'm not sure what the solution is when every track seems to be struggling for horses, and often combining classes just to be able to fill them. I'd start with the simplest one first - every track should be using a staggered starting gate.
The foundation of his argument is reasonable. The reason you see so much
1-5 takes the lead before the half and they race single file until the top of the stretch.
comes down to two things:
- Fields aren't competitive enough. We see it all the time, all over the place. We've got Woodmere Betcha racing in the optional $15,000 claimer in Dayton, and racing against mares dropping down out of the open. JK Maga won basically the bottom condition at Meadows yesterday, and moving up next week will face him off against an open mainstay like Buckeyebollinger N or a solid stake horse like Mchungry. Because of that those overlays get control and nobody is going to challenge them with a lesser horse.
- There's also the realities of physics and engineering. It's estimated that for every turn you're off the rail, you give up about 1 length to the inside horses for every lane you're out. Couple that with turns that are engineered to carry speed at their maximum, and you're at a huge disadvantage racing in an an outside path unless the front end has been beat up.
Think about that for a second. If you're on a 1/2-mile track, get away 6th, and move first up at the 3/8, you've given up over 9 lengths to the lead horse (1Q length per position + 3 lengths in the turns).
I'm not sure what the solution is when every track seems to be struggling for horses, and often combining classes just to be able to fill them. I'd start with the simplest one first - every track should be using a staggered starting gate.
Quote from Mike Tomar on November 13, 2026, 3:06 PMHe's only talking Win bets, try a Trifecta you're going to lose more than 7%. I mean 9 out 10 times even if you win it's going to pay half of what you bet. Jug week on Tuesday I hit 5 Tri's in a row and lost a $100. I wouldn't play Woodbine if it was the last place on Earth.
He's only talking Win bets, try a Trifecta you're going to lose more than 7%. I mean 9 out 10 times even if you win it's going to pay half of what you bet. Jug week on Tuesday I hit 5 Tri's in a row and lost a $100. I wouldn't play Woodbine if it was the last place on Earth.
Quote from Purple Aura on November 13, 2026, 3:47 PMQuote from Mike Tomar on November 13, 2026, 3:06 PMHe's only talking Win bets, try a Trifecta you're going to lose more than 7%. I mean 9 out 10 times even if you win it's going to pay half of what you bet. Jug week on Tuesday I hit 5 Tri's in a row and lost a $100. I wouldn't play Woodbine if it was the last place on Earth.
Only thing I like a about Mohawk/Woodbine is the betting format. I've gone from playing a couple times a week there to a couple times a year on big racing days. Excluding a Stable horse I might bet 5.00 to win on from time to time. It's become unbetable. I agree with Mike.
Quote from Mike Tomar on November 13, 2026, 3:06 PMHe's only talking Win bets, try a Trifecta you're going to lose more than 7%. I mean 9 out 10 times even if you win it's going to pay half of what you bet. Jug week on Tuesday I hit 5 Tri's in a row and lost a $100. I wouldn't play Woodbine if it was the last place on Earth.
Only thing I like a about Mohawk/Woodbine is the betting format. I've gone from playing a couple times a week there to a couple times a year on big racing days. Excluding a Stable horse I might bet 5.00 to win on from time to time. It's become unbetable. I agree with Mike.