2026 Breeder's Crown Three-Year-Old Eliminations SURVIVOR Handicapping Challenge
Quote from Trevor on October 16, 2026, 2:14 PMRace 1 - Madam Cheval, Jailbird Jog
Race 2 - Ken Hanover, Best Chip
Race 3 - Be Perfect Bg, Loua Dipa
Race 4 - Strobe Light, Apex
Race 5 - Go Dog Go, Emoticon Legacy
Race 6 - Emmas Mystery Ccl, Kngtstlkrs Games
Race 7 - Big Ranger, Nix Nacken
Race 8 - Beau Jangles, Redland Rocket Man
Race 9 - Francent N, Twin B Joe Fresh
Race 10 - Brandon Blvd, Melillo
Race 11 - Dandy Ideal, Prince Hal Hanover
Race 12 - Busy Miss Lissy S, She's Moni
Race 13 - Perfect Thought, Sangria Summer
Race 1 - Madam Cheval, Jailbird Jog
Race 2 - Ken Hanover, Best Chip
Race 3 - Be Perfect Bg, Loua Dipa
Race 4 - Strobe Light, Apex
Race 5 - Go Dog Go, Emoticon Legacy
Race 6 - Emmas Mystery Ccl, Kngtstlkrs Games
Race 7 - Big Ranger, Nix Nacken
Race 8 - Beau Jangles, Redland Rocket Man
Race 9 - Francent N, Twin B Joe Fresh
Race 10 - Brandon Blvd, Melillo
Race 11 - Dandy Ideal, Prince Hal Hanover
Race 12 - Busy Miss Lissy S, She's Moni
Race 13 - Perfect Thought, Sangria Summer
Quote from Purple Aura on October 16, 2026, 2:30 PMSo if neither Stable horse makes the BC Finals how much blowback will land on Anthony? Norm was right about Jailbird, race looks like a toss up. Very even. Perfect Thought is in tough. That's why I made the line at 0.5 I think Lonnie is the only betting over. I'm fine with Anthony driving in Ohio or PA against the usual but when it comes to a deep Grand Circuit event. We start slightly behind the eight ball in a driving colony this deep.
So if neither Stable horse makes the BC Finals how much blowback will land on Anthony? Norm was right about Jailbird, race looks like a toss up. Very even. Perfect Thought is in tough. That's why I made the line at 0.5 I think Lonnie is the only betting over. I'm fine with Anthony driving in Ohio or PA against the usual but when it comes to a deep Grand Circuit event. We start slightly behind the eight ball in a driving colony this deep.
Quote from Lonnie on October 16, 2026, 2:53 PMQuote from Bgtolex25 on October 16, 2026, 9:04 AMFirst race is brutal for the start. But the proverbial darts have been thrown and here are how they landed.
Race 1
- Madam Cheval
- Isabella BI
Race 2
- Best Chip
- Ken Hanover
Race 3
- Hope Hill
- Darlin's Angel
Race 4
- Apex
- Inexpressable
Race 5
- Emoticon Legacy
- French Wine
Race 6
- Victorianas Secret
- Little Road
Race 7
- Big Ranger
- Read The Room
Race 8
- Beau Jangles
- Redland Rocket Man
Race 9
- Francent N
- Twin B Joe Fresh
Race 10
- Brandon Blvd
- Fragment
Race 11
- Prince Hal Hanover
- Coaches Corner
Race 12
- Nuance
- Storybook Love
Race 13
- Sangria Summer
- Miss Jum Jabber
I can't get past the first race. I'm stuck handicapping this one. I may just take two darts out of the drawer...
Quote from Bgtolex25 on October 16, 2026, 9:04 AMFirst race is brutal for the start. But the proverbial darts have been thrown and here are how they landed.
Race 1
- Madam Cheval
- Isabella BI
Race 2
- Best Chip
- Ken Hanover
Race 3
- Hope Hill
- Darlin's Angel
Race 4
- Apex
- Inexpressable
Race 5
- Emoticon Legacy
- French Wine
Race 6
- Victorianas Secret
- Little Road
Race 7
- Big Ranger
- Read The Room
Race 8
- Beau Jangles
- Redland Rocket Man
Race 9
- Francent N
- Twin B Joe Fresh
Race 10
- Brandon Blvd
- Fragment
Race 11
- Prince Hal Hanover
- Coaches Corner
Race 12
- Nuance
- Storybook Love
Race 13
- Sangria Summer
- Miss Jum Jabber
I can't get past the first race. I'm stuck handicapping this one. I may just take two darts out of the drawer...
Quote from Bgtolex25 on October 16, 2026, 3:48 PMQuote from Lonnie on October 16, 2026, 2:53 PMQuote from Bgtolex25 on October 16, 2026, 9:04 AMFirst race is brutal for the start. But the proverbial darts have been thrown and here are how they landed.
I can't get past the first race. I'm stuck handicapping this one. I may just take two darts out of the drawer...
Curious, and just asking for a friend, but how much time do you take to handicap any particular race? I am safe to say that I am somewhere between @lonnie and my wife. She immediately goes to the horse color and picks anything not a bay … because she likes individuality, I suppose. If the field is all bays, then by name. If no name tickles her fancy, then it is driver’s colors. No wonder she sleeps better than me.
Quote from Lonnie on October 16, 2026, 2:53 PMQuote from Bgtolex25 on October 16, 2026, 9:04 AMFirst race is brutal for the start. But the proverbial darts have been thrown and here are how they landed.
I can't get past the first race. I'm stuck handicapping this one. I may just take two darts out of the drawer...
Curious, and just asking for a friend, but how much time do you take to handicap any particular race? I am safe to say that I am somewhere between @lonnie and my wife. She immediately goes to the horse color and picks anything not a bay … because she likes individuality, I suppose. If the field is all bays, then by name. If no name tickles her fancy, then it is driver’s colors. No wonder she sleeps better than me.
Quote from Lonnie on October 16, 2026, 5:06 PMQuote from Bgtolex25 on October 16, 2026, 3:48 PMQuote from Lonnie on October 16, 2026, 2:53 PMQuote from Bgtolex25 on October 16, 2026, 9:04 AMFirst race is brutal for the start. But the proverbial darts have been thrown and here are how they landed.
I can't get past the first race. I'm stuck handicapping this one. I may just take two darts out of the drawer...
Curious, and just asking for a friend, but how much time do you take to handicap any particular race? I am safe to say that I am somewhere between @lonnie and my wife. She immediately goes to the horse color and picks anything not a bay … because she likes individuality, I suppose. If the field is all bays, then by name. If no name tickles her fancy, then it is driver’s colors. No wonder she sleeps better than me.
I usually don't spend too much time. I'll scan the race... circle some things that catch my eye. I look for gaps in races, trainer changes, driver changes, whether the horse is moving up/down in class (and I must say that, with some of the conditions they write, with multiple conditions thrown in to make fields, it makes this task VERY difficult at times, etc.), and quickly do it for all the races. Then I'll go back and spend a little bit more time on the race, trying to figure out the pace and true class of each horse... weigh any driver or trainer changes.
But this card, and especially this first race, since I don't want to be eliminated at the start, is a real puzzler to me! I love a good puzzle, but gosh, this one is tough. ESPECIALLY since it's an elimination race. One never truly knows what a trainer/driver is thinking in order to get into the Final.
Quote from Bgtolex25 on October 16, 2026, 3:48 PMQuote from Lonnie on October 16, 2026, 2:53 PMQuote from Bgtolex25 on October 16, 2026, 9:04 AMFirst race is brutal for the start. But the proverbial darts have been thrown and here are how they landed.
I can't get past the first race. I'm stuck handicapping this one. I may just take two darts out of the drawer...
Curious, and just asking for a friend, but how much time do you take to handicap any particular race? I am safe to say that I am somewhere between @lonnie and my wife. She immediately goes to the horse color and picks anything not a bay … because she likes individuality, I suppose. If the field is all bays, then by name. If no name tickles her fancy, then it is driver’s colors. No wonder she sleeps better than me.
I usually don't spend too much time. I'll scan the race... circle some things that catch my eye. I look for gaps in races, trainer changes, driver changes, whether the horse is moving up/down in class (and I must say that, with some of the conditions they write, with multiple conditions thrown in to make fields, it makes this task VERY difficult at times, etc.), and quickly do it for all the races. Then I'll go back and spend a little bit more time on the race, trying to figure out the pace and true class of each horse... weigh any driver or trainer changes.
But this card, and especially this first race, since I don't want to be eliminated at the start, is a real puzzler to me! I love a good puzzle, but gosh, this one is tough. ESPECIALLY since it's an elimination race. One never truly knows what a trainer/driver is thinking in order to get into the Final.
Quote from Lonnie on October 16, 2026, 5:07 PMQuote from Lonnie on October 16, 2026, 5:06 PMQuote from Bgtolex25 on October 16, 2026, 3:48 PMQuote from Lonnie on October 16, 2026, 2:53 PMQuote from Bgtolex25 on October 16, 2026, 9:04 AMFirst race is brutal for the start. But the proverbial darts have been thrown and here are how they landed.
I can't get past the first race. I'm stuck handicapping this one. I may just take two darts out of the drawer...
Curious, and just asking for a friend, but how much time do you take to handicap any particular race? I am safe to say that I am somewhere between @lonnie and my wife. She immediately goes to the horse color and picks anything not a bay … because she likes individuality, I suppose. If the field is all bays, then by name. If no name tickles her fancy, then it is driver’s colors. No wonder she sleeps better than me.
I usually don't spend too much time. I'll scan the race... circle some things that catch my eye. I look for gaps in races, trainer changes, driver changes, whether the horse is moving up/down in class (and I must say that, with some of the conditions they write, with multiple conditions thrown in to make fields, it makes this task VERY difficult at times, etc.), and quickly do it for all the races. Then I'll go back and spend a little bit more time on the race, trying to figure out the pace and true class of each horse... weigh any driver or trainer changes.
But this card, and especially this first race, since I don't want to be eliminated at the start, is a real puzzler to me! I love a good puzzle, but gosh, this one is tough. ESPECIALLY since it's an elimination race. One never truly knows what a trainer/driver is thinking in order to get into the Final.
I'm curious to read about others' approaches.
Quote from Lonnie on October 16, 2026, 5:06 PMQuote from Bgtolex25 on October 16, 2026, 3:48 PMQuote from Lonnie on October 16, 2026, 2:53 PMQuote from Bgtolex25 on October 16, 2026, 9:04 AMFirst race is brutal for the start. But the proverbial darts have been thrown and here are how they landed.
I can't get past the first race. I'm stuck handicapping this one. I may just take two darts out of the drawer...
Curious, and just asking for a friend, but how much time do you take to handicap any particular race? I am safe to say that I am somewhere between @lonnie and my wife. She immediately goes to the horse color and picks anything not a bay … because she likes individuality, I suppose. If the field is all bays, then by name. If no name tickles her fancy, then it is driver’s colors. No wonder she sleeps better than me.
I usually don't spend too much time. I'll scan the race... circle some things that catch my eye. I look for gaps in races, trainer changes, driver changes, whether the horse is moving up/down in class (and I must say that, with some of the conditions they write, with multiple conditions thrown in to make fields, it makes this task VERY difficult at times, etc.), and quickly do it for all the races. Then I'll go back and spend a little bit more time on the race, trying to figure out the pace and true class of each horse... weigh any driver or trainer changes.
But this card, and especially this first race, since I don't want to be eliminated at the start, is a real puzzler to me! I love a good puzzle, but gosh, this one is tough. ESPECIALLY since it's an elimination race. One never truly knows what a trainer/driver is thinking in order to get into the Final.
I'm curious to read about others' approaches.
Quote from Purple Aura on October 16, 2026, 6:21 PMIf I'm gambling, hours. But I'm not on this card and most eliminations when winning isn't always the goal. Spent more time typing than handicapping.
If I'm gambling, hours. But I'm not on this card and most eliminations when winning isn't always the goal. Spent more time typing than handicapping.
Quote from Purple Aura on October 16, 2026, 11:03 PMMight box 15 in the first. The only horses we didn't use. 🙂
Might box 15 in the first. The only horses we didn't use. 🙂
Quote from Lonnie on October 17, 2026, 11:15 AMI am now in the paralysis by analysis stage. Time to just go with my gut. I'll post my picks soon.
I am now in the paralysis by analysis stage. Time to just go with my gut. I'll post my picks soon.
Quote from MaywoodAl on October 17, 2026, 12:33 PMRace 1 - Isabella BI, Southwind Chaska
Race 2 - Best Chip, Surreal Ideal
Race 3 - Be Perfect Bg, Hope Hill
Race 4 - Apex, Inexpressable
Race 5 - Lexus Kody, Emoticon Legacy
Race 6 - Emmas Mystery Ccl, Setyoursighthigh
Race 7 - Read The Room, Nix Nacken
Race 8 - Funky Buddha, Redland Rocket Man
Race 9 - Champagne Room, Twin B Joe Fresh
Race 10 - Brandon Blvd, Melillo
Race 11 - Ervin Hanover, Prince Hal Hanover
Race 12 - Busy Miss Lissy S, She's Moni
Race 13 - Miss Jum Jabber, Sangria Summer
Race 1 - Isabella BI, Southwind Chaska
Race 2 - Best Chip, Surreal Ideal
Race 3 - Be Perfect Bg, Hope Hill
Race 4 - Apex, Inexpressable
Race 5 - Lexus Kody, Emoticon Legacy
Race 6 - Emmas Mystery Ccl, Setyoursighthigh
Race 7 - Read The Room, Nix Nacken
Race 8 - Funky Buddha, Redland Rocket Man
Race 9 - Champagne Room, Twin B Joe Fresh
Race 10 - Brandon Blvd, Melillo
Race 11 - Ervin Hanover, Prince Hal Hanover
Race 12 - Busy Miss Lissy S, She's Moni
Race 13 - Miss Jum Jabber, Sangria Summer